Time to start the ball rolling again, now that we have the Arabomites of the FCO and the BBC having self-induced orgasms about how a thousand flowers of democracy are springing up from the shit-heaps of the Middle East.
There is no cultural basis for such a hope - I wish there were. The most likely result of all the turmoil is that "moderates" will come to power first, amid hosannas from "progressives" in the West; they will fail to cope with the enormous structural problems in their societies and will be too weak to contain the Islamofascists.
The way to bet is for the see-saw of alternating government by the military and a corrupt civilian oligarchy, as in Pakistan. If you can get good odds, put one either way on an Islamist theocracy like Iran, or total social breakdown and war of all against all as in Somalia.
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