Spookery: you have to take chances

Much gloating about the brief capture of a couple of SIS officers and their SAS escort in eastern Libya by those too far gone in hatred of the current UK administration to give it any credit at all.

Absent any reliable sources of information about what is going on, a covert mission was certainly worth a try. The West in general and Britain in particular has a great deal to lose if Khaddafi is replaced by a headless monster, as in neighbouring Tunisia, and it is simply common sense to try to get alongside the leading insurgents as soon as possible.

If the British government could back the eventual winner early, the damage to national interests would be greatly reduced. Indeed, British influence might even be enhanced. It helps that the French and Italians were also heavily committed to the Khaddafi regime, and are better targets for residual anti-colonial feeling.

Straight diplomats are seldom any use in a crisis precisely because it is their job to be risk-averse. They are best at drafting bouts de papier, a skill of little relevance once the guns begin to shoot. The main function of an intelligence service is to keep their own government informed about what is bubbling beneath the surface.

When, as in North Africa, apparently monolithic regimes crumble, it is the spooks who have to scramble to find out who is likely to come out on top. It is in the nature of intelligence work that operations, especially when mounted quickly in a fast-changing environment, will sometimes go tits-up. But it is surely better to try and fail than not to try at all.

Kelly's suicide.

In a previous post I explained that I had "been troubled by the 2003 death of Dr David Kelly, ever since the surgeon who was scheduled to cut me open scoffed at the idea that Kelly could have died form the relatively shallow cut he is alleged to have made in his left wrist, in a cool environment that would have hastened clotting."

"Given that official inquiries have a well-merited reputation for applying white-wash to unsightly blemishes in the conduct of public affairs", I added, "it is reasonable to become suspicious when they do not answer such fundamental questions."

In today's Sunday Times Nicholas Hunt, the pathologist who examined Kelly's body for eight hours makes public facts that the official inquiry into Kelly's death banned from publication for 70 YEARS. It seems Kelly suffered from heart disease so severe that he could have dropped dead at any moment. Consequently blood loss that would have been unlikely to cause the death of a healthy man was more than enough to see him off.

Had my surgeon known that, he would not have spoken as he did - and I would not have repeated his comments when asked about the Kelly case after giving lectures on spooks and spookery.

As I read the ST article, at first I thought I should eat a crow. But on reflection I'll be damned if I will, because in fact - while dispersing the doubts I previously had - it confirms the main point of my earlier post: conspiracy theories arise because official inquiries fail to answer fundamental questions.

The Caucasus Emirate

The latest bulletin from Stratfor on the Caucasus makes intriguing reading. If the single-source account of the role of the Russian FSB in discrediting Doku Umarov and his dream of a North Caucasian Emirate is true - damn, they're good!

The most serious threat to Russian imperial expansion into the Caucasus was led by Shamil, an ethnic Avar from Dagestan. The so-called Caucasian War was the Russian conquest of the North Caucasian Muslim tribes, including Dagestanis, Chechens, Ingush, Ossetians, Karachay and Circassians.

Shamil became chief among those leading a united resistance in the name of a Caucasian Imamate, and was the third and last Imam from 1834 until captured in 1859. His grandson played a leading role in the short-lived Republic of the Northern Caucasus (1917-20).

One can well understand why the FSB should have been very keen to prevent history repeating itself.

Conspiracy theories

Despite having written about the politico-military history of Renaissance Italy, when conspiracies abounded, I am disinclined to believe in modern conspiracy theories because most of them turn on a touching faith in the competence of secret intelligence agencies.

But I have been troubled by the 2003 death of Dr David Kelly, ever since the surgeon who was scheduled to cut me open scoffed at the idea that Kelly could have died form the relatively shallow cut he is alleged to have made in his left wrist, in a cool environment that would have hastened clotting.

Likewise I find it hard to accept that the laws of physics were suspended in Dallas when JFK jerked back in his seat when first shot, as shown in the Zapruder film. For me, that rules out a shot from behind, ergo he was hit first from the Grassy Knoll. Whether the kill shot came from there is less easy to say, but it's the way to bet.

I could very easily be wrong on both counts: maybe Kelly lacked some essential clotting agent, and maybe someone shot through the neck might have a galvanic counter-reaction. I don't know - but given that official inquiries have a well-merited reputation for applying white-wash to unsightly blemishes in the conduct of public affairs, it is reasonable to become suspicious when they do not answer such fundamental questions.

Thence to conspiracy theory is a short step. The reason why I am loath to take that step is that it is insane to argue that a cover-up constitutes an admission of agency in the events under inquiry. It is far more likely that official inquiries, in their desire to counter uninformed speculation, may profess to a certainty to which the facts do not lend themselves.

Unfortunately, in an age where respect for authority is a dim memory, that simply adds fuel to the conspiracy theorists' flame.